Mortgage approvals increase sharply

Economists said they saw glimmers of hope after mortgage approvals rose by the biggest margin for three years in February and lending to companies grew at its strongest pace in almost a year.

The number of loans approved for house purchases rose to 37,937 in February from 31,791 in January, the biggest jump since 2006 and the highest level since May last year, according to data published on Monday by the Bank of England.

Meanwhile, Bank figures on M4 money – which includes notes and coins as well as money in bank accounts – showed lending to private non-financial companies grew at a 5 per cent annualised rate over the three months to February. That was the fastest rate of growth since June last year, and compared with a rise of 0.9 per cent in January.

Increased lending to house buyers and non-financial businesses last month contrasts with sharp declines at the end of last year and follows several faint signs that the recession may be close to a turning point.
The data follow other evidence of heightened activity in the housing market. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors has recorded rising inquiries from new buyers for the past four months, although actual sales have fallen to the lowest level in 30 years. House prices are declining at a slower pace, according to recent data from Hometrack, while sales are being finalised closer to asking prices.

Service industry activity is declining at a slower pace than at the end of last year, while fairly strong income growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 allowed consumers to save more without greatly reducing their spending.

Source: FT 30th March 2009

Effect of falling inflation on index-linked pension payments

Some personal pensions in payment will apparently be cut if the annual rate of inflation falls this year. The government is predicting RPI will show a year-on-year drop of more than 2% by the Autumn.
If that happens, some pension providers have said they will reduce payments on index-linked pension annuities. However, the government has promised that the basic state pension will rise by at least 2.5% even if prices fall year-on-year.

Some providers (including Axa, LV, Partnership, some Standard Life annuities, some Prudential annuities) have said that if RPI becomes negative payments will go down. Other providers have said they will not make cuts (Norwich Union, MGM, and Legal & General) but that payments will remain flat until RPI increases to a higher level than it was before.

Many company pensions may also be frozen if prices fall.